苜蓿、无芒雀麦混播与单播群落总糖及氮素含量动态

对二龄苜蓿与无芒雀麦混播与单播群落地上与地下部分总糖及氮素含量季节动态进行了测定,结果表明：苜蓿地上部分总糖含量呈双峰型,峰值分别出现在结实期和生长末期。无芒雀麦地上部总糖含量呈单峰型,果后营养期地上部总糖含量最高,生长末期地上部总糖含量下降。苜蓿根系总糖含量变化动态呈双峰型,而无芒雀麦呈三峰型。单播无芒雀麦、苜蓿地上部含N量随物候期的推移呈下降趋势;混播草地含N量在9月初降至最低后又上升。苜蓿和无芒雀麦根部含N量动态均呈双峰型,第一个峰值在春季,第二个峰值在秋初。混播增加了无芒雀麦地上和地下部分的N素含量。     

刈割方式对扁穗牛鞭草与白三叶混播草地竞争的研究

试验对扁穗牛鞭草和白三叶混播草地在不同刈割方式下草地群落的密度组成变化、不同层次生物量和相对竞争强度进行了研究。结果表明：扁穗牛鞭草种群密度受留茬高度影响显著,对草层高度不明显,刈割时的草层高度30cm和留茬高度10cm的刈割方式对扁穗牛鞭草有利,此时相对竞争强度较低,扁穗牛鞭草的竞争能力较高,由于白三叶前期生长迅速,占据了地面的空间抑制了扁穗牛鞭草的生长,扁穗牛鞭草草层结构一直处于一种不稳定的状态,最终被排挤出系统。     

Bayesian mixture models for within-herd prevalence estimates of bovine paratuberculosis based on a continuous ELISA response

Diagnostic inference by use of assays such as ELISA is usually done by dichotomizing the optical density (OD)-values based on a predetermined cut-off. For paratuberculosis, a slowly developing infection in cattle and other ruminants, it is known that laboratory factors as well as animal specific covariates influence the OD-value, but while laboratory factors are adjusted for, the animal specific covariates are seldom utilized when establishing cut-offs. Furthermore, when dichotomizing an OD-value, information is lost. Considering the poor diagnostic performance of ELISAs for diagnosis of paratuberculosis, a framework for utilizing the continuous OD-values as well as known coavariates could be useful in addition to the traditional approaches, e.g. for estimating within-herd prevalences.

The objective of this study was to develop a Bayesian mixture model with two components describing the continuous OD response of infected and non-infected cows, while adjusting for known covariates. Based on this model, four different within-herd prevalence indicators were considered: the mean prevalence in the herd; the age adjusted prevalence of the herd for better between-herd comparisons; the rank of the age adjusted prevalence to better compare across time; and a threshold-based prevalence to describe differences between herds. For comparison, the within-herd prevalence and associated rank using a traditional dichotomization approach based on a single cut-off for an OD corrected for laboratory variation was estimated in a Bayesian model with priors for sensitivity and specificity.

The models were applied to the OD-values of a milk ELISA using samples from all lactating cows in 100 Danish dairy herds in three sampling rounds 13 months apart. The results of the comparison showed that including covariates in the mixture model reduced the uncertainty of the prevalence estimates compared to the cut-off based estimates. This allowed a more informative ranking of the herds where low ranking and high ranking herds were easier to identify.     

Estimation of distance related probability of animal movements between holdings and implications for disease spread modeling

Between holding contacts are more common over short distances and this may have implications for the dynamics of disease spread through these contacts. A reliable estimation of how contacts depend on distance is therefore important when modeling livestock diseases. In this study, we have developed a method for analyzing distant dependent contacts and applied it to animal movement data from Sweden. The data were analyzed with two competing models. The first model assumes that contacts arise from a purely distance dependent process. The second is a mixture model and assumes that, in addition, some contacts arise independent of distance. Parameters were estimated with a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and the model probabilities were compared. We also investigated possible between model differences in predicted contact structures, using a collection of network measures.We found that the mixture model was a much better model for the data analyzed. Also, the network measures showed that the models differed considerably in predictions of contact structures, which is expected to be important for disease spread dynamics. We conclude that a model with contacts being both dependent on, and independent of, distance was preferred for modeling the example animal movement contact data.     

Multi-temporal wheat disease detection by multi-spectral remote sensing

For the implementation of site-specific fungicide applications, the spatio-temporal dynamics of crop diseases must be well known. Remote sensing can be a useful tool to monitor the heterogeneity of crop vitality within agricultural sites. However, the identification of fungal infections at an early growth stage is essential. This study examines the potential of multi-spectral remote sensing for a multi-temporal analysis of crop diseases. Within an experimental field, a 6 ha plot of winter wheat was grown, containing all possible infective stages of the powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) and leaf rust (Puccinia recondita) pathogens. Three high-resolution remote sensing images were used to execute a spatio-temporal analysis of the infection dynamics. A decision tree, using mixture tuned matched filtering (MTMF) results and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), was applied to classify the data into areas showing different levels of disease severity. Classification results were compared to ground truth data. The classification accuracy of the first scene was only 56.8%, whereas the scenes from May 28^th and June 20^th achieved considerably higher accuracies of 65.9% and 88.6% respectively. The results showed that high-resolution multi-spectral data are generally suitable to detect in-field heterogeneities of crop vigour but are only moderately suitable for early detection of crop infections.

辛硫磷甲氰菊酯及其混剂对土壤微生物的影响研究

采用密闭法,测定了辛硫磷、甲氰菊酯及其混剂对土壤微生物呼吸的影响,并对其进行了安全性评价。结果表明,辛硫磷和甲氰菊酯混合使用对土壤呼吸基本无影响。安全性评价认为甲氰菊酯、辛硫磷及其混剂对土壤微生物均属于低毒级或无实际危害级农药。     

混播对青贮玉米产量和品质的影响

黑龙江省北部地区气候寒冷,适宜作物生长的时间短,目前绝大多数青贮玉米(Zea mays L.)品种在此种植均表现为籽实成熟差(或无籽实)和水分含量过大,严重影响青贮饲料品质。该地区也种植个别极早熟籽实玉米品种,但植株矮小,地上生物产量低。把不同生育期玉米品种混播混收,不但可以获得较高的生物产量,还可以收获较多的玉米籽实产量,增加碳水化合物含量,从而促进乳酸发酵,改善青贮饲料品质。通过对3个不同生育期的玉米品种进行间行混播混收和同行混播混收试验,探讨了混播对不同品种玉米生育阶段、主要农艺性状、产量和饲用品质的影响,结果表明:混播对于各品种玉米生育阶段和主要农艺性状影响不显著;混播显著提高干物质产量和饲用品质;应用Milk2000指数进行品质和产量综合评价,结果为:间行混播>同行混播>海玉8号>中原单32>东青1号。     

扁穗牛鞭草与紫花苜蓿混播草地生物量和种间竞争的动态研究

研究了单播和混播扁穗牛鞭草与紫花苜蓿草地生物量、分蘖变化及种间竞争的动态.结果表明,单播扁穗牛鞭草的生物量在后3次测定时显著地高于其它处理(P＜0.05);B混播组合的扁穗牛鞭草与紫花苜蓿之间既存在共生关系又存在拮抗关系,而在C和D混播组合中,扁穗牛鞭草与紫花苜蓿之间均存在较明显的拮抗关系;B混播组合的扁穗牛鞭草竞争率均大于紫花苜蓿竞争率,说明扁穗牛鞭草的竞争力强于紫花苜蓿,而D混播组合中两种牧草的竞争情况正好与之相反;总之,以扁穗牛鞭草75％+紫花苜蓿25％的混播组合表现最好.     

氯啶菌酯和苯醚甲环唑对葡萄病害的室内活性和田间防效

采用菌丝生长速率法测定了氯啶菌酯、苯醚甲环唑及其混配制剂对葡萄炭疽病菌和穗轴褐枯病菌菌丝生长的抑制活性,并用孙云沛法测定了混配制剂的共毒系数(CTC)。结果表明:氯啶菌酯抑制葡萄炭疽病菌和穗轴褐枯病菌菌丝生长的抑制中浓度(EC50值)分别为2.1793和1.1274μg/mL,而苯醚甲环唑的EC50值分别为0.6667和0.1041μg/mL。当氯啶菌酯与苯醚甲环唑按10∶1混配时复配制剂抑制这2种病原菌菌丝生长的CTC最高,增效作用最大。田间试验结果显示:试制样品22%氯啶菌酯.苯醚甲环唑EC(20%氯啶菌酯+2%苯醚甲环唑)以90～120 g a.i./hm2喷药2～3次对葡萄黑痘病、霜霉病、炭疽病均有较高的防治效果。     

基于环境星的混合像元分解水稻面积提取

以河南省息县水稻种植面积提取为例,选取线性光谱混合模型对环境小卫星数据进行分类,并计算出水稻种植面积,将其结果与高分辨率ALOS数据进行位置精度计算,得到平均精度达87.89%。同时,与决策树分类方法和神经元网络分类等方法进行对比,混合像元分解方法总量精度显著提高。表明针对环境小卫星的混合像元分解方法可以提高水稻种植面积的提取精度。